Public opinion sways on climate policy: the role of follow-up costs
A study by researchers from the Universities of Lucerne and Glasgow has delved into public attitudes towards the EU’s carbon border tax on CO₂-intensive goods. The study highlights how the uncertainty surrounding the policy's economic impact causes public opinion to fluctuate.
The European Union's (EU) carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) aims to make emissions-intensive imports from countries with little or no carbon regulation more expensive (see box below). Proponents of the import tax argue that it will protect domestic jobs and prevent companies from relocating to less regulated countries. Critics say it hinders free trade and drives up prices. Patrick Bayer, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Glasgow and lecturer at the Department of Political Science at the University of Lucerne, and Lena Maria Schaffer, Professor of Political Science specialising in international and transnational relations, surveyed citizens from four European countries – Germany, Hungary, Switzerland and the United Kingdom – on the issue.
Compared to national carbon levies, which have historically garnered support from about one-third of respondents, CBAM measures enjoy approximately 10% higher approval. However, when respondents were informed of potential price increases for affected imported goods, support dropped by six to ten percentage points, depending on the country. Meanwhile, there was no change in respondents' attitudes when the job preservation benefits of the CBAM were highlighted in the survey. Interestingly, attitudes changed when respondents were asked to assess the impact of the CBAM not on themselves but on their region or country as a whole.
Overall, a considerable portion of the public remains undecided on the issue. This suggests that public opinion can be influenced by the way climate policy is presented, according to the study's authors. In particular, political parties wishing to position themselves against increased climate protection may be able to strategically sway public opinion in their favour, as support for the carbon border adjustment system declines when the potential additional costs are emphasised. The authors of the study also note that while the CBAM has not featured prominently in political debates in recent elections, this could change quickly as climate policy becomes more polarised.
Patrick Bayer, Lena Maria Schaffer
"Distributional consequences shape public support for the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism: evidence from four European countries"
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 19, Number 8
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The study was conducted as part of the research project "Beyond Policy Adoption: Implications of Energy Policy on Parties, Publics and Individuals" funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF).
Taxation of carbon-intensive imports
In order to keep the global temperature rise below 2°C, the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement created a dynamic incentive system for climate action, known as “ratcheting”. This means that signatory countries will gradually increase their climate targets over time. Measures to bridge the gap between increasing climate targets and protecting national economies have been prompted by concerns about "carbon leakage", i.e. the shifting of CO₂ emissions to countries outside the EU and the relocation of companies in response to stricter climate regulations. In this context, the European Union's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) aims to protect European producers, who are increasingly subject to carbon regulation, from unregulated and therefore cheaper imports. The CBAM entered its transitional phase in October 2023 and is due to be fully implemented in January 2026.
